This week, in one screen

Four months ago, oil was over $120 and people were talking about $150. This week it's back near $72.

That's the whole market in a sentence: the war scare came, and the war scare went. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, Saudi tankers are loading for the first time since March, and the fear premium that pushed crude over $120 has bled out of the price.

But here's the part worth your attention. The same event — calm returning to the Gulf — pushed oil and gold down and left copper standing. Three commodities, one headline, three completely different reactions. Understanding why is the entire job, and it's what this letter is for.

This is Issue 001. Welcome.

The week on the screen

LME official provisional closes, 26 June vs 19 June. Oil (Brent) fell roughly 10% on the week, its worst in a month. Gold fell about 5%.

Look at the order. Everything fell — but copper barely moved while aluminium and nickel dropped five to six percent. That gap is the story this week. Hold that thought.

Three things that mattered

When the Gulf was tense, traders paid up for oil because they were scared supply would get cut. That fear had a price — a "war premium" sitting on top of the real value of a barrel. This week the premium vanished: ships are moving through Hormuz, the blockade is over, and crude fell all the way back to where it started.

This is the oldest pattern in commodities. Fear premiums spike fast and unwind faster. Anyone who bought the headline got paid — and is now getting carried back out.

Gold had its worst week in a while, down about 5%, and it's now roughly 20% below its January record. The easy explanation is the peace deal — less fear, less need for a safe haven. That's partly true.

But it's not the main driver. The real one is the US Federal Reserve. The Fed turned hawkish — signalling it may raise interest rates rather than cut them — and a stronger dollar with higher rates hurts gold far more than a ceasefire does. When everyone points at one headline, it's worth checking what else moved. This week, the Fed moved.

While oil crashed and the rest of the metals slid, copper barely budged — still near its record high. Why does copper hold when everything else drops?

Because copper isn't a fear trade. It's a supply trade. Which brings us to the one bit of depth worth your time this week.

Why copper is really a supply story

Here's the thing most headlines miss. Copper isn't expensive because of the Middle East or the Fed. It's expensive because the world isn't producing enough of it — and you can't build a data centre, an electric car, or a power grid without it.

There's a quieter supply squeeze underneath, too. Copper has to be smelted to be usable, and smelting needs sulphuric acid. A big chunk of the world's acid supply got disrupted this year — partly from the same Gulf tensions, partly because China, the largest exporter, halted acid exports through the summer. Less acid, harder smelting, tighter copper. You won't read that on the front page, but it's a real reason the metal is holding while everything else falls.

The short version: oil reacts to the news. Copper reacts to the shortage. One is a headline. The other is a structural fact that doesn't unwind on a ceasefire. That's why they moved in opposite directions this week.

What I'm watching next

• Oil — the ships, not the headlines. Hormuz is "open," but it's half-empty, insurance is high, and a tanker was hit off Oman this week. "Open" on paper and "back to normal" aren't the same thing. The price has fully relaxed; the physical reality hasn't caught up.
• Gold — the Fed. Forget the peace deal. Watch whether the Fed actually hikes. That's what sets gold's direction from here.
• Copper — supply signals. Any sign the acid squeeze eases, or that mine and smelter output picks up. That's what would finally cool the metal that refused to fall.